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Prediction for CME (2019-05-07T04:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-07T04:42Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14725/-1
CME Note: This is an extremely faint CME and a possible partial halo seen going to the South East in C3. There could be several potential associated eruptions associated with it, with no definite clarity. Now that C2 images are available, it seems that most probably the CME is associated with a slow lift off of a long N-S oriented filament north from the AR 2740. The CME has an unusually-shaped front (as seen in STA and in difference C3 imagery).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-10T16:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-11T12:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2019 May 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only B-level enhancements observed
during the period. Region 2740 (N08E21, Cso/beta) continued to decay
slightly, while Region 2741 (N05E59, Hsx/alpha) remained relatively
unchanged and inactive.

A few additional CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery throughout the
period, but appeared to have easterly, non-Earth directed trajectories.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a chance for C-class
flares, during the forecast period (08-10 May) as Region 2740 continues
to exhibit signs of decay, and Region 2741 remains stable.

The asymmetric halo CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at
06/2348 UTC was analyzed further, and appears to have a likely
Earth-directed component. Initial indications point to a potential
arrival time at Earth near midday on 11 May, just outside this forecast
period.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels, with a
maximum flux of 1,050 pfu at 07/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux maintained background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
again on 08 May, and decrease to moderate levels on 09-10 May due to
lack of influential activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained indicative of a slow regime. Total field
strength averaged near 3 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +2/-4
nT, and solar wind speed decreased to near 325 km/s. The phi angle
remained in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
The anticipated influences from an isolated negative polarity CH HSS are
still possible, but less likely, on 08 May as the coronal hole moves out
of a geoeffective position. Ambient, background conditions are likely to
return on 09-10 May as any CH HSS influences wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
chance for an isolated active period, on 08 May in response to possible
CH HSS influences. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on 09-10
May.

Lead Time: 52.42 hour(s)
Difference: -19.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2019-05-08T12:30Z

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